关键词: 人口负增长, 人口规模回旋空间, 市场能力, 消费力, 循环畅通

Abstract:

Promoting national renaissance with Chinese-style modernization and achieving the second centennial goals require high-quality economic growth and development. The classical theory of economic growth proves that technological progress, essential factor growth, and demand-pull are the power sources of economic growth. Under the conditions of negative population growth and aging age structure, the reduction of labour supply and marginal revenue of capital factors are inevitable. Technological progress, labour productivity improvement, and demand-pulling power enhancement will become the main driving force of future economic growth Technological progress and labour productivity improvement cannot be separated from the support of the enhancement of market capacity. Therefore, on the basis of recognizing and defining of market capacity, this paper describes how China’s market capacity will face the possible impacts and challenges brought by negative population growth and aging in the future. This paper suggests that under the condition of negative population growth and aging, the cushion space effect of large population scale can be fully utilized to enhance the supply-side output capacity, demand-side consumption capacity, and circulation capacity. And, finally, from the perspective of social governance and market governance, this paper describes the strategies, ways, and measures that could fully stimulate the population cushion effect to enhance the nation’s market abilities.

Key words: negative population growth, population size cushion space, market capacity, consumption power, smooth circulation