关键词: 人口负增长, 人口治理, 人口与发展理念, 人口发展战略, 人口政策

Abstract:

To support Chinese-style modernization with a huge population with high-quality population development, it is crucial to determine the population governance strategy in the context of negative population growth as early as possible. Whether in a period of rapid population growth or a period of “coexistence of low fertility and low population growth”, the theory and practice of population governance in developing countries are dominated by the “population problem” model and the emergency thinking and engineering design perspectives embodied behind it. This population governance model advocates “catering” the needs of economic development, resource utilization, and environmental protection through direct intervention and manipulation of population development. Although this model has achieved certain results in controlling population growth, it also has serious problems with the economic, social, and demographic aspects and has come at a heavy price. Based on past experiences and lessons, population governance strategies in the era of negative population growth should transcend the “population problem” model as soon as possible. It is necessary to completely abandon the emergency thinking and engineering design perspective. Instead, the nation should attach great importance to the balanced development of the population itself and to fully recognize the great creativity of man and his infinite potential to adapt and transform the environment. Specifically, the population governance strategy in the era of negative population growth is an organic whole that includes population and development ideologies, population development strategies, and population policies, and shows a hierarchical and progressive relationship in which ideologies determine strategies, and strategies determine policies. Among them, concerning population and development ideologies, a positive view of population and a two-way interactive view of population and development should be promoted. At the level of population development strategies, negative population growth strategies should be resolutely rejected. As to the population policies, both mitigation and adaptive policies should be given equal attention.

Key words: negative population growth, population governance, population and development ideology, population development strategy, population policy