关键词: 治理, 可能性, 衍生品, 数据治理, 预期性治理

Abstract:

Contemporary governance increasingly relies on algorithmic probabilistic judgments concerning individuals’ future behavior to carry out interventions. Unlike traditional governance，which is directed at concrete acts that have already occurred，this mode of intervention is directed at possibilities that have not yet materialized. The operational logic of financial derivatives provides an effective analytical perspective for characterizing this emerging form of governance. Just as derivatives form synthetic structures that are independent of the continuity of the underlying asset through abstraction and recombination，algorithmic intervention likewise extracts signals from individuals’ lives and integrates them statistically to produce probabilistic judgments that are independent of causal continuity. This isomorphic relationship reveals an epistemological shift in contemporary governance，together with the three challenges it engenders. First is the accountability challenge，whereby errors are difficult to attribute to specific decision-makers. Second，the governability challenge，whereby governance tools lag behind the objects of governance. Finally，the legitimacy challenge，whereby the traditional function of defense is weakened. In response，contemporary governance is undergoing a transformation toward anticipatory governance. Through the three principles of procedural traceability，risk stratification，and the reconstruction of rights，it shifts the operational basis of governance from facts to possibilities，thereby constituting a new mode of governance

Key words: governance, possibility, derivatives, data governance, anticipatory governance