关键词: 大学县域化, 人口负增长, 区域创新生态系统, 大城市化

Abstract:

Against the backdrop of China’s negative population growth and megalopolitanization， the “county-level diffusion” of universities exhibits prominent spatial and structural tensions. The wave of university expansion initiated during the demographic growth era has not abated amid population contraction. Instead， it has persisted， driven by new incentives such as competition over strategic resources. Drawing on neo-institutionalism， the production of space theory， and the regional innovation ecosystem theory， this paper constructs a three-stage dynamic model of “institutional inertia - spatial mismatch - ecosystem dysfunction” to interpret the formative mechanisms and evolutionary logic behind this phenomenon. The model reveals that the county-level diffusion of universities arises from the coupling of multiple institutional logics in a specific historical period， and its spatial practices inherently breed latent spatial mismatches. As demographic growth shifts to negative growth， such latent contradictions become fully manifest， potentially triggering functional decline of the macro regional innovation ecosystem and breakdown of micro organizational culture. Systematic analysis of policy documents， macro statistical data， and typical domestic and international cases provides empirical evidence for the proposed model. The findings indicate that regardless of shifts in expansion incentives， the county-level diffusion of universities will face rigid locational constraints in an era of stock competition， which may further exacerbate spatial polarization between central and peripheral regions. The theoretical model developed in this research offers a new analytical perspective for understanding the time-bound nature of institutional arrangements and the intricate interactions between space and institutions in transitional societies.

Key words: county-level diffusion of universities, negative population growth, regional innovation ecosystem, megalopolitanization