关键词: 制度弹性, 人口规模潜能, 区域人口增减分化, 空间杜宾模型

Abstract:

Negative population growth， population ageing， and widening regional demographic disparities have driven a deeper interest in the rational spatial distribution and optimal agglomeration of population to facilitate domestic economic circulation and promote high-quality development. Building on the existing literature， this study first develops a theoretical framework to explain how institutions and institutional resilience shape regional population size and its potential for expansion. Using panel data from 271 prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2023， we construct a composite index of institutional resilience encompassing absorptive， adaptive， and transformative capacities. We then employ two-way fixed-effects and spatial Durbin models to empirically examine the relationship between institutional resilience and changes in regional population size potential. The results show that institutional resilience significantly enhances regional population size potential， while generating negative spatial spillover effects on neighbouring cities. This positive effect is more pronounced in cities with faster economic growth and in non-resource-based cities. Quantile regression results further indicate that the positive effect of institutional resilience is statistically significant at the 25th， 50th， and 75th quantiles of the distribution of population size potential， with the magnitude increasing progressively across higher quantiles. This finding suggests that improvements in institutional resilience generate greater gains in population carrying capacity and attractiveness in cities that already possess relatively high population size potential. Robustness checks using actual population size （year-end total population） as an alternative dependent variable yield qualitatively consistent results： a 0.01-point increase in the institutional resilience index is associated with an average increase of approximately 2，080 people in the year-end total population of such areas. Overall， institutional resilience enhances regional population expansion potential primarily by increasing birth rates， reducing mortality rates， and promoting net in-migration， and these mechanisms are ultimately corroborated at the level of stable population size.

Key words: institutional resilience, population size potential, regional demographic divergence, Spatial Durbin Model