关键词: 人口老龄化, 人口转变理论, 第二次人口红利, 经济增长

Abstract:

As the world’s aged population grows, the traditional demographic dividend is declining. However, the second demographic dividend theory has opened up a new perspective for economic growth in this context. This paper reviews the theory’s conceptual connotations and argues that its applicability to China depends on how it integrates the nation’s unique characteristics, economic development, and pattern of population aging. At its core, China’s second demographic dividend theory posits that the improvement of population quality can partially offset the negative effects caused by the declining size of the labor force. In the context of rapid development and widespread application of science and technology, it is necessary to fully tap the human resources potential of all age groups, especially the older labor force, to reconstruct the society and economic production mode, and ultimately achieve the sustained and stable growth of the national economy. This paper argues that China’s current developmental stage is capable of realizing a second demographic dividend and has the conditions to realistically achieve it. Doing so, however, depends on policymakers correctly understanding the relevant theories of demographic dividends, grasping the long-term dynamics of China's population, and adhering to basic population governance strategies. These strategies include a dual emphasis on the supply- and demand-side. This will provide effective policy guidance to society and the markets which will help achieve sustainable social and economic development under the general trend of population aging.

Key words: population aging, demographic transition theory, second demographic dividend, economic growth