关键词: “十五五”时期, 人口负增长, 人口老龄化, 人口高质量发展, 社会治理

Abstract:

Although the demographic decline process was initiated during the 14th Five-Year Plan，the 15th Five-Year Plan is the first complete demographic reduction planning cycle in China， marking a comprehensive transition from incremental expansion to reduction governance. The focus of economic growth momentum has shifted from scale-driven to structure-optimized development， with the strategic value of high-quality population development supporting high-quality socioeconomic development becoming increasingly prominent. This is a critical juncture.Chinese-style modernization and population development are undergoing deep transformation asthe coordinated evolution takes hold. Althoughthis is the initial phase of development during demographic reduction， and the 15th Five-Year Plan period features a relatively mild total population decline，dramatic structural transformations are appearing. Under the premise of maintaining China’s massive population base， this era will form an intertwined transformational landscape， featuringgradual decline in total numbers， dramatic structural changes， enhanced quality， and spatial polarization. These in turn will requiremultidimensional， broad-range， and in-depth national governance transformations. National governance during the 15th Five-Year Plan period will include demographic reduction conditions as well asthe achievement of long-term balanced development， which will includea high-quality population， ample quantity， optimized structures， and rational distribution. To complete this task， it is imperative to transcend the traditional incremental planning paradigms. A theoretical framework and practical pathways centered on high-quality population development for reduction governance must also be established. Proactive deployment of novel governance frameworks at the temporal-spatial intersection of population structural transformation and the development paradigm shift is essential to strengthen the population foundation for Chinese-style modernization.

Key words: 15th Five-Year plan period, negative population growth, population aging, high quality development of population, social governance